Imagine - No Guess Work or Endless Hours Looking At Charts, I’ll give you the exact rules to trade this 100% Mechanical Trading System that works across all market types and all time frames!
FOREX - Futures - Stocks
In fact, I’ll give you the computer code that will instantly calculate all the results I’m about to show you. So before you dismiss this letter, know that I can, and will, back up every word I say, Mathematically!
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No guessing or uncertainty - Mechanical Trading Systems provide confidence which is essential to profitable trading. |
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Never miss a big move again - All it takes is diligently placing the system generated orders and you'll never miss the Big Movers again. |
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Only takes a few minutes a day - Whether you are in a trade or managing a position, calculating orders just takes a few minutes. |
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Trades in the direction of the trend - This simple strategy of limiting trades depending on market direction is worth tens of thousands a year |
Trend Weaver Trading System
The logic behind Trend Weaver is to do exactly what profitable Trend Traders do, catch every trend and ride it until the end. It does this by waiting for a trend to develop, entering a trade in the direction of the trend, and then holding that position until the trend comes to an end.
Beta charts by TimingCharts.com
Beta charts by TimingCharts.com
Beta charts by TimingCharts.com
System Trading
You can fly by the seat of your pants when deciding your next trade or you can rely on systematic math. I’ve tried both and only math has consistently made me money.
It’s so easy to look at a historical chart and think, “I would have known to sell when this double top formation happened”. When looking at... WHAT HAS HAPPENED, the past - We can confidently look at a slice of the chart and conclude... "Of course that pattern was the beginning of a trend continuation".
Scrolling through the chart another pattern is found, (with the knowledge of hindsight that the market reverses) our brains rationalize this fact and again, we convince ourselves that we can properly identify this again --- in real-time --- with real-money at stake.
I know that thinking this way is a huge temptation. But it is also a huge roadblock to any progress.
A strange thing happens when we start trading from the right side of the chart, IN REAL-TIME, all those perfect calls suddenly end. We can just as easily convince ourselves a market should be shorted as we can that it should be bought.
Why is this?
Drawing on my days as a commodity broker, 15 years of trading experience and countless discussions with other traders, I have seen it time and time again... humans are Terrible at making trading decisions!!
Three problems humans have with making trading decisions:
Information overload
Inconsistent application of rules
Emotions
Good thing for computers and back-testing software…
I think we can agree that computers don’t have emotions. It’s also safe to say that computer programs can apply a set of rules consistently, repeatedly and without flaw.
Now I’m sure it’s possible to overload a computer with information, however, for the purpose of testing my simple trading ideas, a computer works effortlessly.
In fact, I’ve processed thousands upon thousands of hours of trading system tests over a 10 year period - testing trading idea after trading idea - and every time the computer has come back with a solid mathematical solution to my question.
Can you see that it would be -- without question -- impossible for a human brain to do so many flawless calculations, in one lifetime? We are very fortunate to be traders during a time when computers and testing software are so abundent?
Stated more clearly , we have the ability to ask hypothetical questions, get instant - acurate answers, and then ask another question just as fast as we can type them. This was impossible for traders to do just one generation ago!
Computerized-systematic-trade-testing is like having an army of research scientists performing calculation after calculation, logging all the details of each test, in search of the absolute best method for applying a mathematical set of trading rules to the markets.
Using 20 to 30 years of market history on a dozen markets or so, I found one method of trading so consistently better than the others, I began focusing all my efforts to fine tune it.
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Trading "WITH" the Trend
A key component to a good trend system is identifying the dominant trend and then only trading in the direction of that trend. I've been using the same powerful trend identification method for 12 years now. It's the same trend identification method used in Trend Weaver.
Trend trading takes a market position and treats it like an investment. A good trending strategy will milk a position for all it's worth and only exit when it's clear the market has turned.
Many traders crave the action of trading and the rush that comes with making and losing money. Not trend traders, they wait patiently for the market to develop another trend and then jump on board when their system signals them to.
The big money is made by the sittin' and the waitin' -- not the thinking.
Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade."
“How to Trade Stocks," by Jesse Livermor
Diversification
By trading multiple markets simultaneously with the same system you can greatly increase the performance and tradability of a trading system. The goal is to have at least one market performing well at all times which will offset other markets that are performing poorly. After all, we can't predict the future but we can certainly place ourselves in a trend as it starts to take off.
The great thing about commodities is that each sector has it's own set of fundamentals and cycles which makes them highly uncorrelated with one another. This is much less true with stocks where the entire market can sell off at the same time.
Combining a diverse mix of markets to trade that matches your account size should be given considerable thought. Trade too few commodities and the equity curve may be too erratic. Trade too many markets and you may run out of margin money.
Trend Weaver excels at trading multiple markets and has four times been named one of the top 10 systems since inception by Futures Truth...
Small Portfolio
- 20 year test period: Sep 1989 to Sep 2009
- $50 deducted for each round turn for slippage and commission
- 1 contract traded
- Commodities: miNY Crude, Eurodollar,
USD/JPY mini lot, Lean Hogs & Rough Rice
Note: The mini yen traded on Globex is thinly traded. For best fills trade currencies on FOREX.
The start trade draw-down calculates the maximum expected draw-down in percentages. It does this by looking at all possible starting points over the test period (20 years for this portfolio) and then calculates the probability of achieving a specific draw-down when you start out trading the system.
Medium Portfolio
- 20 year test period: Jan 1987 to Dec 2006
- $50 deducted for each round turn
- 1 contract traded
- Commodities: Cotton, Crude oil, Eurodollar, Gold, USD/JPY, Lean Hogs, Palladium, Rough Rice, Soybeans & T-Note 10 yr
The start trade draw-down calculates the maximum expected draw-down in percentages. It does this by looking at all possible starting points over the test period (20 years for this portfolio) and then calculates the probability of achieving a specific draw-down when you start out trading the system.
Large Portfolio
- 20 year test period: Jan 1987 to Dec 2006
- $50 deducted for each round turn
- 1 contract traded
- Commodities: GBP/USD, Coffee, Crude oil, Cotton, Dollar Index, Eurodollar, T-Note 5 yr, Gold, Heating Oil, USD/JPY, Lumber, Lean Hogs, Natural Gas, Nikkei Index, Palladium, Rough Rice, Soybeans, USD/CHF, T-Note 10yr and 30 yr T-Bond
The start trade draw-down calculates the maximum expected draw-down in percentages. It does this by looking at all possible starting points over the test period (20 years for this portfolio) and then calculates the probability of achieving a specific draw-down when you start out trading the system.
Position Sizing
The results above are to demonstrate the benefits of diversification by trading multiple markets. However, most of us would not trade just 1 contract per market for 20 years straight. More likely we would reinvest our profits as we go
Calculating how many contracts to trade for each market, known as position sizing, should be given considerable thought to maximize your profits.
Position sizing algorithms allow us to vary the risk we want to take while normalizing the amount risked on each market. A system needs to take larger positions in slow moving, low volatility markets, and smaller positions in fast moving, high volatility markets.
The goal is to balance the account so that a 1% move in corn will have the same impact on the portfolio as a 1% move in crude oil.
Trading a balanced “position size” across all markets accomplishes two things. Reduces risk and increases returns!
Now let's look at what happens when we combine the benefits of diversification and position sizing together.
Take a look at the following 3 portfolios when position sizing is used rather than 1 lot trades used before. Look carefully at the numbers, can you identify 2 separate trends in the numbers?
Position Sizing on Small Account
20 year test period
$50 deducted for each round turn
Markets: miNY Crude,
USD/JPY mini lot, Lean Hogs & Rough Rice
Position Sizing on Medium Account
20 year test period
$50 deducted for each round turn
Markets: Cotton, Crude oil, Gold, USD/JPY, Lean Hogs, Palladium, Rough Rice, Soybeans & T-Note 10 yr
Position Sizing on Large Account
20 year test period
$50 deducted for each round turn
Markets: GPB/USD, Coffee, Crude oil, Cotton, Dollar Index, T-Note 5 yr, Gold, Heating Oil, USD/JPY, Lumber, Lean Hogs, Natural Gas, Nikkei Index, Palladium, Rough Rice, Soybeans, USD/CHF, T-Note 10yr and 30 yr T-Bond
Do you see what happens as more markets are added? There's an inverse relationship between the percent risked on each trade and the compounded annual growth rate!
Diversification + Position Sizing
Equals
Higher Returns & Less Risk
The amount risked on each trade is reduced as more markets are added. The Compounded Annual Growth rate also increases as more markets are added to the portfolio. The large portfolio produces a huge 75.57% CAGR risking only 4% per trade.
The lesson to portfolio management is this: It's more important to add markets than it is to add contracts. It's ok to start out with a small account with 3 or 4 markets in the portfolio, just add more markets as the account grows rather than trying to add more contracts!
How You Can Trade with Trend Weaver
Perhaps the best thing about Trend Weaver is how truly easy it is to implement. The math only takes a few minutes per market a night. A simple system to implement yet the results are amazing.
Buy Trend Weaver and you will receive the following...
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Step-by-Step Instructions describing exactly how the Trend Weaver works, mathematically! |
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No software is necessary to implement Trend Weaver. I'll give you all the rules you'll need to trade right off TimingCharts.com |
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TradeStation code, fully disclosed and open source TS 4.0 ELA, TS 2000i ELS and TS 8 (in text file) |
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Traders Studio code, fully disclosed and open source |
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I'll email you all of the files listed above. |
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CFTC REQUIRED RISK DISCLOSURE STATEMENT:
NOTICE: "HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
